Cellular IoT connections are on track to reach 5.9 billion by 2035 as 5G technologies expand to include a wider range of enterprise applications, according to new research from Omdia.

The company predicted adoption will be underpinned by three core technologies: 5G RedCap, designed to simplify and streamline connectivity, 5G Massive IoT and 4G LTE Cat-1bis, which supports low-cost, low-power IoT devices.

Omdia highlighted 5G RedCap as key to enabling cost-efficient connectivity as operators prepare to phase-out 4G networks after 2030. Aimed at mid-tier devices that do not require ultra-low latency or high bandwidth, RedCap began gaining traction this year following its integration into the latest Apple Watch models.

“The implementation of 5G RedCap in the latest range of Apple Watches has signalled the starting gun for RedCap adoption,” said Alexander Thompson, senior analyst for IoT at Omdia. He added that enterprises will see “a wider and wider selection of connectivity technologies” emerge, supporting a broader range of applications.

Further growth is forecasted in 2026, when enhanced RedCap (eRedCap) modules are expected to launch, expanding mid-tier connectivity options and helping to drive cellular IoT adoption through the next decade.

Automotive is set to become one of the largest cellular IoT segments over the forecast period. Omdia expects connected vehicle subscriptions to rise from around 500 million today to approximately 1.2 billion by 2035, increasing the sector’s share of total connections from 13 per cent to 21 per cent. A large portion of this growth will come from Asia and Oceania, fuelled by rising demand for intelligent, 5G-connected vehicles.

The rise of software-defined vehicles is “made possible by cellular connected vehicles, which is why we expect to see vehicles represent 1 in 5 cellular connections by 2025,” added Andrew Brown, IoT practice lead at Omdia.

The findings are drawn from Omdia’s Cellular IoT Market Tracker, which analyses shipments, revenues and installed connections by region, technology and application through to 2035.