IDC revised a previous forecast of smartphone shipment growth in 2026 to a small decline, as it expects a shortage in memory components to raise device prices and reduce the number of units shifted.

The analyst house expects shipments for 2025 to come in at 1.25 billion units, a 1.5 per cent increase on 2024. However, for 2026 it predicts this will decline by almost 1 per cent, having previously projected a rise of around the same level.

Despite fewer units being shipped, it anticipates a record high value for the market of $579 billion, with average selling price (ASP) reaching $465.

IDC expects a shortage of memory components to constrain supply and increase prices, most significantly in the low-to-mid range Android segment. It noted this part of the market is most sensitive to rises.

The company also expects the top-line shipment figure to be affected by a decision by Apple to shift its “next base iPhone model from” late 2026 to early 2027.

IDC research director for its Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker Anthony Scarsella highlighted “as memory components become more limited and more expensive, manufacturers face increasing pressure to raise prices”.

“Vendors need to adopt different strategies to protect their market share. While some OEMs will inevitably be forced to raise prices, others will adjust their portfolio towards pricier models with higher margins”.

He added although 2026 would “be a challenging time for the industry”, IDC still believes the market “could see record ASPs”.

Apple gains
IDC’s predictions for 2026 came as it reported an expectation Apple would book a “record year” for 2025, with shipments expected to be up 6.1 per cent to more than 247 million units.

Senior research director Nabila Popal said Apple achieved “phenomenal success” with the iPhone 17 series, a statement backed-up by statistics and reports from other analysts.