AST SpaceMobile executives laid out an aggressive schedule for the launch of its second-generation Block2 Bluebird low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites during a Q2 earnings call, but at least one analyst was confused by some of CEO Abel Avellan’s statements.

Avellan said there will be six to eight Block2 Bluebird satellites per launch in 2026, with launches occurring every 45 days. He stated the company now has the capacity to build six Block2 Bluebirds per month.

“Everyone is deeply confused,” Tim Farrar, an analyst at TMF Associates, told Mobile World Live (MWL). “This statement of ‘six to eight’ satellites per launch by Avellan is what has created the problem.”

The Block2 satellites have ten-times the capacity of its first-generation birds and are three times larger.

The upcoming launches are key for supporting AST SpaceMobile’s full voice, data, and video space-based cellular broadband services.

It is anticipating at least five orbital launches by 31 March, with lift off occurring every one to two months on average to reach its goal of 45 to 60 birds in orbit by end-2026.

“We are preparing to deploy nationwide intermittent services in the United States by the end of this year with our US MNO partners AT&T and Verizon, followed by the United Kingdom, Japan and Canada in Q1 2026,” Avellan said.

The company has completed assembly of microns for phased arrays of eight Block 2 BlueBird satellites, which Farrar stated in a blog is enough for four launches.

The satellite operator has launch agreements on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and with Blue Origin’s New Glenn vehicle but did not say which rockets it will use to hit its goal.

Not happening
Chris Quilty, founder and CEO of space sector research and strategic advisory firm Quilty Space, told MWL Blue Origin hasn’t commented on its launch cadence since late-2024 when the company forecast eight to ten year launches this year, “which is not happening,” and 24 next year. 

“With the exception of SpaceX, all of their launch providers are shifting to the right,” Quilty said.  “United Launch Alliance was forecasting 20 launches this year but now they’re targeting nine this year and 20 to 25 next year.”

Farrar stated due to the larger size, there will be three next-gen birds on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket following single deployments of its delayed FM1 and FM2 satellites.  He noted the New Glenn rockets will not be available to AST SpaceMobile until later next year.

“They might get two New Glenn launches in before the end of 2026,” he explained. “Of course, there’s no point in building six satellites per month, let alone 40 sets of microns by early 2026,  if you can only launch three satellites per launch on the only rocket you have access to for the next year.”